TURNHOUT C VAN< BALLERING L & BOTH C (2011) Population trends and breeding success of European Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in the Netherlands: an update. LIMOSA 84 (1): 38-46.

The European Pied Flycatcher has become a model model species for studying the population effects of climate change on breeding birds, particularly long-distance migrants. In this paper we analyse trends in numbers and data on breeding biology of the Dutch breeding population. Annual mean laying date has advanced with ten days since the mid 1980s (Fig. 1), whereas arrival of males has advanced with only five days. Between 1984 and 2002 the national population has declined by almost 50%, but recovered slightly since (Fig. 2). Population trends differ strongly between regions (Fig. 3) and habitats (Fig. 4). In coniferous woodland populations have increased, whereas in deciduous and mixed forests the populations initially declined, but stabilised since the end of the 1990s. Average nest success and number of fledged young per successful breeding attempt are rather similar between habitats, and we did not find habitat-related differences in trends in breeding success since 1995, but the availability of habitat data for nest records is limited. At the national scale, the trend in nest success resembles the population trend: a decline between 1984 and 2000, but a stabilisation or even a increase since (Fig. 5). However, the mean number of fledglings per successful nest has shown a continuous increase since the early 1980s (Fig. 6), probably due to the advancement of mean laying date (early breeders produce more fledglings). These results are discussed in the light of possible and recent adaptations of Pied Flycatchers to climate change. European Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca

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